The Effectiveness of Sin Food Taxes : Evidence from Mexico

We measure the effect of a large nationwide tax reform on sugar added drinks and caloric-dense food introduced in Mexico in 2014. Using scanner data containing weekly purchases of 47,973 barcodes by 8,130 households and an RD design, we find that calories purchased from taxed drinks and taxed food decreased respectively by 2.7% and 3%. However, this was compensated by increases from untaxed categories, such that total calories purchased did not change. We find increases in cholesterol (12.6%), sodium (5.8%), saturated fat (3.1%), carbohydrates (2%), and proteins (3:8%). We conjecture that obesity is unlikely to be reduced by this tax