The effects of experience on preference uncertainty: theory and empirics for environmental goods

This paper develops a model of demand estimation in which consumers learn about their true preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two quasi-public goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience with a good will make consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.