The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility Decisions : Evidence from China

This study comprehensively examines export tariff liberalization’s influence on women’s marital and fertility decisions in China, using accession to the WTO as a natural experiment. Our identification relies on the shift-share design that combines industry-level variation in export tariff reduction with differences in industry composition across cities. We find that export tariff cuts significantly lower women’s marriage rates, delay their marriage, and reduce the number of children. These effects are more prominent among women with high skills and those aged 20-30. Our mechanism analysis also shows that export tariff cuts improve women’s absolute and relative labor market outcomes