The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot, and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public. The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run; the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang, while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices. The corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang, so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging, and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.