The Empirics of Growth and Convergence: A Selective Review

Recent empirical studies tend to confirm the importance of investment in human and technological capital as determinants of growth. Extensions of the neoclassical model that incorporate these factors explain rather well the long-run growth experience of a large sample of countries, and are consistent with the observed level of international inequality and its upward trend. These models do not explain very well the variation of growth rates over time, however, and the lack of robustness of the estimated coefficients to sample selection, specification, and other factors suggests that we are still far from having precise estimates of structural parameters such as the coefficients of the aggregate production function. Finally, the methodology employed in these studies does not allow us to reach clear conclusions regarding the likely evolution of the international income distribution of income, or the policies which may have an impact on growth.