The energy transition in Colombia : current situation, projections, challenges, narratives and public policies - in relation to the energy transition in Germany

This Wuppertal Paper analyses the energy transition models of Colombia and Germany. The emphasis of the exercise is on an analysis of options for the complete decarbonization of the energy system in Colombia as a Global South country. To this end, it analyses the current situation, projections, public policy and narratives, and contrasts it with Germany as one of the countries of the Global North with which Colombia has historically maintained energy trade relations and is currently collaborating in the exploration of energy alternatives for decarbonization. Detailed analysis of sectoral energy consumption in Colombia shows the sectors with the highest fossil energy consumption (in this order): transport (fuels), industry (gas, coal), electricity generation (gas, coal) and residential (gas). We show the projected increase in demand for fuels and electricity, and calculate the amount of electricity theoretically needed to substitute fossil sources in each sector. We estimate the total electricity required for decarbonization via sector coupling and derive a first estimation of the range of additional renewable energy capacities needed to supply this demand. We find that required capacities are expectedly large (56-110 GW), depending on decarbonization pathways, and that export capacity beyond national demand may be limited. Our analysis of the policy and scenario arena in both countries finds that Colombia is still lacking both sector-specific decarbonization strategies and an embedding in a systemic vision of a systemic energy transition. Germany has more advanced sector strategies and (national) systemic visions, but lacks embedding assumptions on energy imports in a global-system analysis, i.e. in the analysis of an energy transition in potential exporting countries like Colombia. We formulate requirements to close these gaps in our conclusions.