The Evolution of Banking Sectors in Central and Eastern Europe - The Case of Poland

Changes in the Polish financial system were so rapid that some stages of financial development were skipped. At the beginning of the transformation process, banks' main balance sheet items were short-term loans and deposits. At the end of the 1990s, foreign investors started to rapidly increase their share of banking sector assets. And with the inflow of foreign capital came the transfer of technologies, know-how, and also business models from parent companies. These models were based on granting housing loans. As a consequence, it is households rather than enterprises that are now the most important customers for banks in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In fact, the share of household loans (mainly mortgage loans) in banking sector assets in the CEE countries is the highest among all EU countries. Banks financed their activities through a growing deposit base, later supplemented by loans from parent companies. The future of the Polish banking sector will depend on the evolution of the global financial system. Banks will probably start to rely more on traditional sources of financing and their portfolio of liquid assets will be greater than before the outbreak of the global financial crisis. As for the asset side of the balance sheet, housing loans are likely to continue to occupy the dominant position. The overwhelming demand for housing (in Poland, as in other CEE countries, the vast majority of residential property is owned, rather than rented), coupled with very low average income relative to the price per square metre, make it impossible for banks to do without long-term financing. Covered bonds are a possible source of such financing. It would be desirable to design and implement instruments which could change the current structure of banking sector assets (lower the share of household loans). The existing structure is clearly not conducive to the economy's international competitiveness. The question remains, however, as to how banks might be induced to steer their credit flows away from households and towards manufacturers.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2692232" What Do New Forms of Finance Mean for EM Central Banks?