The Fallout of War : The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria

Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Key Messages -- Overview -- Analytical strategy -- The nature of the impact -- The preconditions of the fallout -- Looking ahead: A tale of two futures -- Notes -- References -- 1. Prelude -- Mashreq: A timeline retrospective -- Measuring the impact: Methodological issues -- The analytical strategy of this study -- Notes -- References -- 2. The Mechanisms of the Fallout -- Exposure to shocks -- Institutional resilience -- Notes -- References -- 3. A Survey of the Outcomes -- Macroeconomic trends -- Fiscal trends -- Labor market trends -- Poverty trends -- Access to public services and infrastructure -- Environmental trends -- Notes -- References -- 4. Unraveling the Nature of the Impact -- The impact on GDP -- Drivers of the GDP impact -- Distributional implications of the GDP impact -- Fiscal implications of the GDP impact -- Discussion -- Notes -- References -- 5. The Aftermath: A Tale of Two Futures -- The fallout prospects -- A unilateral approach -- A regional approach for a better equilibrium -- A deus ex machina for the Mashreq theater? -- Notes -- References -- Appendixes -- A. Data Sources for Chapter 2 -- B. Estimating the Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Capital Flows -- C. Technical Notes for Chapter 4 -- Boxes -- Box 4.1. Estimations based on the synthetic control method -- Box 5.1. Regionalism, conflict, and public services -- Box 5.2. Digital infrastructure outlook -- Box 5.3. Regionalism across three historical periods in the Mashreq -- Figures -- Figure O.1. Analytical strategy -- Figure O.2. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact -- Figure O.3. GDP growth rate comparison, 2000-10 versus actual 2010-18 versus counterfactual 2010-18 -- Figure O.4. GDP growth gains in selected Mashreq countries from security and service restoration in the Syrian Arab Republic.