The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission.

The authors show that the interest rate on Federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables. Then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves; that is, the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions. Finally, using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy, the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through "credit" (i.e., bank loans) as well as through "money" (i.e., bank deposits). Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.