The Fertility Transition in the US: Schooling or Income?

Schooling. This study estimates the respective contributions of schooling and income in determining the fertility transition within the US states between 1840 and 1980. While evidence suggests that both relationships are negative and statistically signi?cant, the most robust determinant of the transition is the development of human capital as measured by years of schooling. This empirical fact corroborates the use of the quantity-quality trade-off mechanism in theoretical models to generate the transition from economic stagnation to growth.