The Forecast of Main Macroeconomic Indices - 2015-2016

The economic development indicators in the Russian Federation over the first half-year of 2015 and the initial data on the movement of the main macroeconomic indices in July-August 2015 are such that they have necessitated a downward adjustment of the main macroeconomic indices plotted in the basic scenario. The scenario-based model relies on the forecast of the average annual price of oil. According to our estimations, this index for 2015 will be at the level of $55 per barrel. We have presented three scenarios for 2016; our basic scenario in its core parameters is close to the scenario developed by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and assumes that the average annual price of oil will be at the level of $55 per barrel. The other two scenarios – the pessimistic (price of oil – $40 per barrel) and the optimistic one ($70 per barrel) – represent, in our opinion, the ceiling and the floor of the probable range achievable under realistic scenarios