The Forward Premium in Short-Term Rates

This paper provides the first systematic study of the temporal and cross-sectional variation in the forward premium in very short-term rates. Using a unique and comprehensive data set of European repurchase agreements (repo), we find that the forward premium varies significantly with the (net) demand for borrowing and funding risk. Conditional tests of the unbiasedness hypothesis reveal that the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) cannot be rejected when funding liquidity risk is low and the demand is balanced. Overall, funding liquidity risk is the main driver affecting the short end of the term structure, and the validity of the EH depends on funding risk premiums and demand for funding immediacy