The German Debt Brake: Approaches for an Improvement of the Technical Design

This article examines the German debt brake from a technical point of view. By designing the debt brake on the basis of the EU method, it should be possible to achieve an adequate division between the cyclical and structural components of the budget balance, while at the same time pursuing a countercyclical fiscal policy. However, recent studies suggest that the mechanics of the debt brake are of a rather pro-cyclical in nature. This paper focuses on the behavior of the NAWRU – a central element of the production function approach – as well as revisions, which both seem to be a source of a pro-cyclical influence towards the German debt brake. Additionally, reform proposals are outlined which show that a change of the Basic Law is not necessary in order to improve the dynamics of the fiscal rule at hand.