The heterogeneity of world trade collapses

This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (1930s; 173 countries). The analysis deals with the first year of these episodes and develops a small empirical model that shows a significant impact of the development of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity with respect to regional importance of these drivers.