The impact of income shocks on children education: the 1987-1989 locust plague in Mali

This paper estimates the long run impact of a large income shock, by exploiting the regional variation of the 1987-1989 locust invasion in Mali. Using exhaustive Population Census data, we construct birth cohorts of individuals and compare those born and living in the years and villages a ected by locust plagues with other cohorts. We assert that in-utero and early childhood exposure to income shock had a larger negative effects on the probability to go to school than later childhood exposure. Indeed, the proportion of boys born during the shock and who later enrolled at school is reduced by 4.9% if they lived in a community invaded by locusts, and by 3.5% for girls. This impact goes up to 6% for boys and 5% for girls living in rural areas. Concerning the number of years of education and the probability to achieve primary school, no real impact is found for boys while girls who lived in a community a ected by locusts have completed between 0.25 and 0.67 lower grades than if they had lived in another community. Finally, we nd that children living in rural localities and belonging to farmer households appear to have been much more affected than other children, living in urban localities or belonging to cattle breeder or shopkeeper households.