The Impact of International Trade on Electric Loads in Mexico

We estimate effects relevant to a possible shift in U.S. trade policy on electric loads in Mexico. We find exports to be a highly significant predictor of energy loads and a significant predictor of peak loads in models that do and do not include GDP and a trend toward greater efficiency in the use of electricity. These results are consistent with trade impacting load through high load factor, industrial customers. We conclude that, if a shift in trade policy toward Mexico is seen as a realistic possibility, it would be worthwhile to analyze its impact on loads, especially energy loads, in scenarios