The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revised : A Study of Indian Stock Market

The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex) and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period January 2007 to March 2014. Johansen's co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the wholesale price index, money supply and interest rate but negatively relate to index of industrial production and exchange rate. The index of industrial production and the exchange rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate and stock market index and interest rate and stock market index. Interest rate causes stock market index in both long run and short-run. The findings show the evidence of causality from stock price index to wholesale price index in both long-run and short run but not other way around. Furthermore, it is observed from the findings that money supply causes stock prices only in the long-run but not in short run