The Impact of Model Choice on Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions Against Infectious Diseases : The Case of Pandemic Influenza
Cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions against infectious diseases are often performed using static models. Well-known static models are Markov models and decision trees. These models use a constant force of infection to estimate number of infected individuals. The dynamic effects of interventions, such as reduced transmission of the virus are not taken into account. A dynamic model on the other hand captures these elements through a time-dependent force of infection. A static model often leads to overestimating the number of sick individuals compared to a dynamic approach. Ignoring the reduced transmission of the virus due to intervention can lead to non-optimal resource allocation decisions. Influenza threatens to introduce a worldwide pandemic since most individuals lack immunity against a new subtype. In absence of an effective vaccine, therapeutic use of antiviral drugs is an alternative intervention to mitigate a pandemic and many countries are stock-piling these drugs as part of their preparation plan. Cost-effectiveness ratios between an intervention scenario (therapeutic use of antiviral drugs) and a non-intervention scenario are estimated with both a dynamic and a static model. We show that, when taking account of the effects of reduced transmission (dynamic model), there would be about 2 million less individuals having influenza-like illness than with the static model estimate. As a consequence there would be less health care resources spend (EUR 90 million), less people would die (2400) and production losses would be EUR 380 million less. The resulting cost-effectiveness ratio when using the dynamic approach is more favorable compared to the static (about 25% lower). Not taking the decreased transmission among a population into account leads to incorrect cost-effectiveness ratios. If policy decisions about, for example stock-piling of antiviral drugs to prepare for a pandemic influenza, are based on static models, scarce resources would unnecessarily be tied up
Year of publication: |
2007
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Authors: | Lugner, Anna |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Subject: | Infektionskrankheit | Infectious disease | Epidemie | Epidemic | Gesundheitsvorsorge | Preventive care | Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse | Cost-effectiveness analysis | Gesundheitspolitik | Health policy |
Description of contents: | Abstract [papers.ssrn.com] |
Saved in:
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource |
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Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Notes: | Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments June 1, 2007 erstellt Volltext nicht verfügbar |
Classification: | C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis ; I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049982
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