The Inflationary Effect of Price Increases in Oil Products in Turkey

In this study, the inflationary effect of price increases in oil products was investigated for Turkey’s economy using monthly data for the period 1996 - 2009. According to the empirical evidence obtained from the study made with bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), co-integration relationship between the variables have been determined. Accordingly, in the long-term analysis, inflationary effect of price increases of oil products was found positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. In its short-term analysis, coefficient of the error correction term was found statistically significant and negative. Therefore, deviations occured between the variables converge to long-term equilibrium level.