The Influence of diversification on short-term and long-term viability in the Scottish and Swedish agricultural sector

The long-term viability of farm businesses has been a stated goal for agricultural policy in most developed and developing economies. Recent investigations have found the level and type of diversification to be a significant factor in determining viability. This paper presents an index of short term and long term viability over the period 2000-2012 across Scotland and Sweden. Transition probabilities are presented using a balanced Markov chain approach. We find stability in both viable and non-viable farms over time, irrespective of policy and market change. A multinomial logistic regression finds the influence agaricultural diversification on determining higher levels of viability at the farm level.