THE INFLUENCE OF THE MACROECONMIC SITUATION IN THE VALUE OF THE SYTEMATIC CREDIT RISK IN ALBANIA. AN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The study presents the results of a statistical analysis of the macroeconomic impact in the credit risk in Albania. The purpose of the analysis is the determination of macroeconomic factors that had a significant impact on systematic credit risk in Albania. The analysis resulted that the depreciation of the currency in relation to the euro led to a worsening of financial situation of borrowers who have a loan in Euros, increasing the possibility of default loans. The world financial crisis has adversely affected our banking system, reducing the loans offered and worsening macroeconomic indicators. High inflation and GDP change also had a significant impact on the deterioration of the quality of the banking portfolio. By statistical analysis resulted in the period taken into account, the credit risk in Albania is not influenced by interest rates, export-imports, the unemployment rate and the exchange rate of the dollar.