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The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions

We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.
Year of publication:
2004
Authors: Hernández-Murillo, Rubén ; Owyang, Michael T.
Institutions: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Subject: Econometrics | Forecasting
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application/pdf
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Type of publication: Book / Working Paper
Language: English
Notes:
Published in Economics Letters, March 2006, 90(3), pp. 339-5 Number 2004-005
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707684
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