The Information Technology Productivity Paradox

A vintage capital model where the firm makes decisions about whether to replace or upgrade its old capital stock with new capital is developed in this paper. The model is used to study how technological characteristics of capital affect investment behavior. In particular, it is asked how the rate of technological advance, the compatibility between capital stocks of different vintages, and the extent of learning-by-doing affect investment behavior. The model sheds light on the "information technology productivity paradox." The results suggest that the paradox may just be an artifact of the estimation procedures used, which ignore the vintage features of capital. Finally, the key implications of the model are tested using firm-level data. The data support the implications of the model that information technology (IT) capital is associated with a strong learning-by-doing effect and that IT capital investment is lumpier than other kinds of capital investment. (Copyright: Elsevier)