The Informational Role of Fund Flow in the Profitable Predictability of Mutual Funds

This study examines if mutual fund flow information can be exploited as a predictor for future fund performance, and if an economically profitable trading strategy can be executed. My central finding is that investors can improve their fund selection ability and beat the market conditional on correctly predicting the direction of the forecasted fund returns induced by fund flows in an out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting context. Viewed through this lens, I design a “long expected winners-short expected losers” trading strategy within a simulated investment portfolio, where a fund trader establishes long position in funds deemed to be “expected winners” (i.e., funds with predicted positive returns), and short position in funds deemed to be “expected losers” (i.e., funds with predicted negative returns). This forward-looking strategy generates significant profits which are evident in both raw returns and risk-adjusted returns, and endure after controlling for various fund characteristics, macroeconomic variables, trading dynamics, and fund investment styles. This evidence, on the informational role of fund flow, provides important insights to academic researchers and practitioners