The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien de Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, Andrei A. Levchenko
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns actually can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produce a net mortality increase
Year of publication: |
June 2021
|
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Authors: | Ma, Lin ; Shapira, Gil ; De Walque, Damien ; Đỗ-Quý-Toàn ; Friedman, Jed ; Levchenko, Andrei A. |
Institutions: | National Bureau of Economic Research (issuing body) |
Publisher: |
2021: Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research |
Subject: | Coronavirus | Epidemie | Epidemic | Infektionsschutz | Infection control | Konjunktur | Business cycle | Wirkungsanalyse | Impact assessment | Kindersterblichkeit | Child mortality | Vergleich | Comparison | Welt | World |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource illustrations (black and white) |
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Series: | NBER working paper series ; no. w28925 |
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature |
Language: | English |
Notes: | System requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files Mode of access: World Wide Web Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers |
Other identifiers: | 10.3386/w28925 [DOI] |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585409
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