The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates
Expectations about long-term earnings growth are crucial to valuation models and cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross section of stocks using several indicators of operating performance. We test for persistence and predictability in growth. While some firms have grown at high rates historically, they are relatively rare instances. There is no persistence in long-term earnings growth beyond chance, and there is low predictability even with a wide variety of predictor variables. Specifically, IBES growth forecasts are overly optimistic and add little predictive power. Valuation ratios also have limited ability to predict future growth
Year of publication: |
[2003]
|
---|---|
Authors: | Chan, Louis K.C. |
Other Persons: | Karceski, Jason J. (contributor) ; Lakonishok, Josef (contributor) |
Publisher: |
[2003]: [S.l.] : SSRN |
Description of contents: | Abstract [papers.ssrn.com] |
Saved in:
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts
Chan, Louis K.C., (2004)
-
On Portfolio Optimization : Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model
Chan, Louis K.C., (2000)
-
The Risk and Return from Factors
Lakonishok, Josef, (1998)
- More ...