The Long-Run Effects of Market Access Shocks from U.S. Railroad Network Expansions

This paper examines whether increased market access driven by railroad network expansions had long-run effects on those living in affected areas during their early life. I make use of linked complete count U.S. Censuses to follow individuals who were children in 1900 and trace through short-run changes to outcomes such as literacy and family circumstances by 1910, as well as longer-run outcomes such as income and occupation in 1940. I incorporate an instrumental variable strategy based on improvements to distant segments of the railroad network and constant, pre-period county populations to help isolate the causal effect of market access. I find that, in the short run, children are less likely to be literate and their mothers are more likely to have more children. In the long-run, these children then become less likely to be well-educated and earn less income by 1940. The results of this paper shed light on the mechanisms through which market access and railroads can impact individuals from childhood to later life