The Long-Term Impacts of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking
This paper investigates the effects of cigarette tax changes at different ages on long-term smoking behaviors. Using survey data on six decades of birth cohorts, I show that an increase in the cigarette tax at any age diminishes the long-term probabilities of smoking initiation and participation and reduces smoking intensity amongst people who currently smoke. These findings suggest that cigarette taxes prevent adults from beginning to smoke and cause people who smoke to promptly smoke less and quit over time. A back-of-the-envelope policy simulation indicates that a steep, modern-era tax hike would eventually lead to a total of 40,000 to 70,000 fewer deaths from smoking-related causes