The Modeling of Forecasting the Bankruptcy Risk in Romania

Bankruptcy prediction and the understanding of the causes for economic failure have a financial utility. The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive power, on the Romanian market, of the most popular bankruptcy models considering the firms listed on the BSE during 2007-2011. Using the principal component analysis, the best bankruptcy predictors of the established financial indicators were determined for Romanian companies. Then, by using the multiple discriminant analysis and logit analysis, 12 models were developed in order to determine the best predictive function for bankruptcy