The Natural Disaster Vulnerability Evaluation Model (NDVE-Model) : An Application to the Northeast Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 2011

The natural disasters have a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of our paper is to set forth a model – the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model – to evaluate the impact of natural disasters on GDP growth. The model is based on three basic indicators – (i) the natural disasters vulnerability propensity rate (Ω); (ii) the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π); and (iii) economic desgrowth rate (δ). In addition, this model is based on chaos theory and risk complexity analysis framework. We apply the NDVE-Model to the Northeast Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy