The Origin of Fat Tails
We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and correlations can be estimated robustly and that all distributions are approximately normal. Fat tails in observed distributions occur because time series sample different stress levels and therefore different normal distributions. This provides a quantitative description of the observed distribution including the fat tails. We discuss simple applications in risk management and portfolio construction.
Year of publication: |
2013-10
|
---|---|
Authors: | Gremm, Martin |
Institutions: | arXiv.org |
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
Mathematical Constraints on Financially Viable Public Policy
Gremm, Martin, (2012)
-
The stress-dependent random walk
Gremm, Martin, (2015)
-
Mathematical Constraints on Financially Viable Public Policy
Gremm, Martin, (2013)
- More ...