The persistent decline in unionization in western and eastern Germany, 1980-2004 : What can we learn from a decomposition analysis?

An empirical analysis of various waves of the ALLBUS social survey shows that union density fell substantially in Germany from 1980 to 2004. Such a negative trend can be observed for men and women and for different groups of the workforce. Regression estimates indicate that the probability of union membership is related to a number of personal and occupational variables such as age, public sector employment and being a blue collar worker (significant in western Germany only). A decomposition analysis shows that differences in union density over time and between eastern and western Germany to a large degree cannot be explained by differences in the characteristics of employees. Contrary to wide-spread perceptions, changes in the composition of the workforce seem to have played a minor role in the fall in union density in western and eastern Germany.