The Post-War Dilemma : War Outcomes, State Capabilities, and Economic Development after Civil War

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in countries emerging from civil war. While there is substantial evidence that economic growth is a key factor in maintaining peace after civil war, the existing literature has not explained the unique factors that may account for the large variation in growth across post-civil war countries. I argue that war outcomes affect the ability of the state to effectively implement policies conducive to economic growth. Using a statistical analysis of 114 cases of civil war between 1944 and 1997, my preliminary findings strongly suggest that states whose wars end in negotiated peace agreements experience lower levels of economic growth than states whose wars end in military victory by one side. I explain this finding by suggesting that the war outcomes condition the ability of a state to balance the political and economic demands of the population. Negotiated settlements force the state to prioritize political demands, which are frequently a condition of settlement, while perhaps sacrificing economic goals and hindering growth. However, because economic growth is an essential factor for sustained peace, this presents policy makers with a difficult post-war dilemma