The Potential Impacts of the Made in China 2025 Roadmap on the Integrated Circuit Industries in the U.S., EU and Japan

The purpose of this working paper is to estimate the potential impact of the Made in China 2025 Green Paper on Technological Innovation in Key Areas: Technology Roadmap (2017) on integrated circuit (IC) producers in the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and Japan. We attempt to clearly fill in the gaps of projection and consumption data in the scenario presented by the 2017 Roadmap and using the Green Paper's definition of consumption and production. In the first part of the analysis, we assume that the market growth, market share, and projections presented in the Green Paper as the baselines and compare them with other industry data. In part 2, we estimate integrated circuit (IC) production market shares for the U.S., EU, and Japan in both China and globally based on the assumptions made in part 1. In part 3, we estimate IC consumption shares in the US, EU, and Japan. We find that the goals imply a significant decrease in the competitiveness of the integrated circuit industries in the U.S., EU, and Japan, though this conclusion must take into account that the assumptions and logic of the Green Paper do not accurately reflect industry dynamics. Finally, we offer suggestions for future analysis