The Potential of Nuclear Power in the Context of Climate Change Mitigation - A Techno-Economic Reactor Technology Assessment

Within the context of climate change mitigation plans for investments into new nuclear power plants are spreading. While several non-nuclear countries plan first light-water nuclear plants, countries such as the US invests several billions of dollars into the development of so called non-light water reactor technologies within climate and energy policy context. Furthermore, the potential role of nuclear power in future energy systems has emerged as an important and controversial topic. However, there is no comprehensive coverage to assess the techno-economic state and perspectives of proposed reactor technologies. The here presented is carried out on two levels: On an aggregate level of energy and climate scenarios, the paper reviews the role of nuclear power in long-term energy scenarios as such scenarios shape visions and expectations about future energy systems and thus influence policy makers. On the disaggregate level, we synthesize techno-economic aspects of potential new nuclear power plants differentiating between three different reactor technology types: light-water cooled reactors with high capacities (in the range or above 1,000 MWel), so-called SMRs (“small modular reactor”), i.e., light-water cooled reactors of lower power rating (< 300 MWel) (pursued, e.g., in the US, Canada, and the UK), and non-light water cooled reactors (“so-called new reactor” (SNR) concepts), focusing on sodium-cooled fast neutron reactors as well as high-temperature reactors. We find that nuclear power potential plays a highly contrasting role in energy scenarios from steep nuclear scale up to an end of commercial operations, which shows the need of further research for underlying assumptions and potential expert biases. Actual development further shows an industry in decline and, if commercially available, lacking economic competitiveness in low-carbon energy markets for all reactor types. Literature shows that other reactor technologies are in the coming decades unlikely to be available on a scale that could impact climate change mitigation efforts. The techno-economic feasibility of nuclear power should thus be assessed more critically in future energy system scenarios