The Problem of Political Calculation in Autocracies

Autocrats depend on their followers to remain in power. They compensate the followers in exchange for their support. Yet, they have few tools to guide them in determining the compensation commensurate with the value of each follower’s support. The failure of political calculation can easily lead to the autocrat’s demise. In semi-authoritarian and democratic regimes, elections provide a solution to the problem of political calculation. In elections, citizens cast votes in exchange for public or private goods. Thus, the number of votes received by candidates and parties can be used as a proxy for the value of their support