The Promess Model : MESo PROjection of Ages for Ceasing Employment and Retiring

The PROMESS model (MESo PROjection of the Retirement System) is a projection model developed by the DREES during the first semester of 2010 to estimate the age distribution in people ceasing employment, ceasing the validation of quarters and the first time receiving a retirement benefits for those in the generations currently on the labour market. It allows us to make projections until the horizon of 2030 as to the different indicators deducting from these distributions: the amount of the retirees, seniors’ employment rate, etc. This working paper details the model’s main hypotheses and characteristics. Moreover, the annexes present a few specific technical points, examples of application as well as comparisons to exterior administrative sources and to other simulation and projection models. PROMESS is a model covering all retirement schemes and the entire population: it applies to the ensemble of the population, to those born in France or abroad, without distinguishing people according to the schemes to which they are affiliated over the course of their careers. It is based on two sources of inter-scheme statistical data from administrative records: the inter-scheme retirement sample (échantillon interrégimes de retraités - EIR) and the inter-scheme contributor sample (échantillon interrégimes de cotisants - EIC)