The Rate of Return to Higher Education Over the Business Cycle

Currently there is only a scant literature available on the business cycle effect upon the private rate of return to higher education in Australia. This is despite the expectation that the business cycle would be of a significant consequence to the relative income of degree holders. This paper presents estimates of the rate of return in Australia associated with the completion of Bachelors degrees for a range of fields of study over the business cycle. The results show that for the average person there are strong incentives to complete these degrees, and the private rate of return compares favourably with the real long term real bond rate. However, there are considerable differences in rates of return according to gender and discipline of study. There also appear to be important business cycle effects on the rate of return to a university degree.