The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Public Spending of the Philippines during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Government expenditures and its effect on economic growth have been a subject of various debates among the literature surrounding economics. The study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the two macroeconomic variables with emphasis on the relation in the Philippines and how it is affected by the economic status of the country using panel data of 15 countries. The analysis and the relationship of the macroeconomic variables will be considered in the context of the global pandemic in the case of the Philippines. Furthermore, forecasting of different scenarios will also be done to determine what macroeconomic variable will lead to the most growth. Fixed effects estimation technique and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the forecasting under different scenarios were used. The results of the study show that a general negative relationship between government expenditures and economic growth was observed yet more evidence is needed to fully establish the relationship. The relationship for developing countries was shown to be negative and significant; Underdeveloped and developed countries were found to have, although insignificant, a negative and positive relationship, respectively. In the Philippines, a negative and insignificant relationship was observed. The study recommends that creating short-term policies such as boosting vaccination supplies, controlling the spread of the virus, and providing social protection for vulnerable firms and households are necessary costs to ensure the well-being of the people, even if the results show that these negatively affect economic growth. On the other hand, the forecasts showed that scenario 2, household consumption, will positively affect economic growth the most, thereby suggesting that policies to increase the consumption of citizens will be favorable for the economy
Year of publication: |
[2022]
|
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Authors: | Castillo, Marvin Jericho ; Ordoñez, Dylan Marcus ; Villagracia, Al Rey |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
Subject: | Coronavirus | Philippinen | Philippines | Wirtschaftswachstum | Economic growth | Epidemie | Epidemic | Öffentliche Ausgaben | Public expenditure |
Saved in:
freely available
Extent: | 1 Online-Ressource (16 p) |
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Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Notes: | Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments March 1, 2022 erstellt |
Other identifiers: | 10.2139/ssrn.4059421 [DOI] |
Source: | ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292912
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