THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND EXPORTS IN ROMANIA USING A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

In this paper we analyze the exchange rate influence on exports volume inRomania using a vector autoregressive model (VAR). Our analysis, relative to the 2003Q2-2011Q1 period, reflects a negative relationship for the first lag and a positive one in thesecond lag. Considering the first lag as being significant, an increase of the exchange ratelevel has effects in decreasing exports volume. Also, according to impulse-response function,a shock in the exchange rate has significant effects on exports after two periods. Variancedecomposition shows a weaker influence, less than 10 percent.