The RHOMOLO ex-post impact assessment of the 2014-2020 European research and innovation funding programme (Horizon 2020)

This paper presents a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the Horizon 2020 funds, carried out using the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO. The policy disbursement data used to feed the model relate to the actual use of the funds over the period 2014-2021, so this is considered an ex-post evaluation. The model simulations suggest that the GDP gains in 2021 for the European Union as a whole would be up to 0.19% compared to the hypothetical baseline with no innovation policy. The GDP gains are also expected to be significant after the end of the 2014-2020 programming period, due to the positive effects of process and product innovations resulting from Horizon 2020 funding. The effects gradually diminish due to the gradual obsolescence of the new knowledge and innovations generated by the policy intervention. The model results also reveal significant interregional spillovers in some, but not all, countries of the Union.