The Role of Flexibility in the European Electricity Market : Insights from a System Dynamics Perspective

This paper studies the role of flexibility sources in the European electricity market, using a system dynamics model that includes various socio-technical factors, and a novel flexibility scoring concept. The learning rate impact of a new technology (gas-CCS) on the system’s flexibility is analyzed. Simulation results show that the flexibility score of the system can reach 102.8GWand 167.3GWin 2050, respectively, when 5% and 10% of the development rate of flexible solutions are considered. When socio-technical factors are ignored the flexibility score only reaches 24 GW. The impact of the renewable energy mix on the market’s flexibility is studied by focusing on offshore wind. Simulation results show that offshore wind can ensure higher flexibility compared to onshore wind. The scenario which encompasses a higher share of offshore wind in the renewable energy mix has a 16.5 GW higher flexibility score, a difference that decreases to 2.4 GW in 2050 when assuming a 10% learning rate for gas-CCS. Socio-technical parameters increase the difference in the flexibility score between offshore and onshore wind power up to 10 GW. We conclude that the system may actually have more flexibility in an offshore wind-oriented market without governmental support