The tariff-only import regime for bananas in the European Union: Is setting the tariff at right level an impossible mission?

The European Union is bound by World Trade organisation agreements to move to a tariff-only import system for bananas no later than 1 january 2006. From that date, imports from non-ACP countries will be subject to a single tariff while ACP country bananas will continue to enter the EU market duty free. This regime will replace the highly contested tariff-rate quota policy in place since 1993. This paper shows that setting the tariff at a level that maintain tha status quo is an impossible mission given uncertainties on quota rates estimates and quota rent distribution