The Vacation Is Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.–Cuba Tourism

The opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean’s tourism industry. This study models the impact of such an opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that liberalizing Cuba–U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba.