The War in Ukraine, Refugees, and the Housing Market in Poland

This study analysed the impact of the Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022 on rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a significant increase in the rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets affected by the refugee shock. However, similar effects were not found in the case of housing prices. In March and April of 2022, rents increased by around 16,5% in Krakow and 14% in Warsaw, while house prices in both cities rose much less (by about 4,0% in Krakow and 1% in Warsaw). Using Bayesian Structural Time Series models, we demonstrated that this abnormal increase in rents is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely caused it