Timeliness of Spread Implied Ratings

Rating agencies are known to be prudent in their approach to rating revisions, which results in delayed rating adjustments. For a large set of eurobonds we derive credit spread implied ratings and compare them with agency ratings. Our results indicate that spread implied ratings often anticipate the future movement of agency ratings and hence can help track credit risk in a more timely manner. This finding has important implications for risk managers in banks who, under the new Basel 2 regulations, have to rely more on credit ratings for capital allocation purposes, and for portfolio managers who face rating-related investment restrictions