Total Factor Productivity Growthin Pakistan: An Analysis of the Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors

This paper uses Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) in Pakistan over the period 1985 – 2005, first for the manufacturing and agricultural sectors individually, then for the economy as a whole. Inmanufacturing, productivity increased at an average of 2.4% per year with output growth being driven mainly by increases in capital. Despite the limitations of the available agricultural data, we have determined that productivity has grown at an average rate of 1.75% per year in this sector. The major drivers of growth in agriculture have been increases in labor and TFP.These estimates of sectoral TFP put Pakistan at par or above average as compared to other developing countries, but lagging behind the East Asian economies. For the economy as a whole, TFP has increased at an average rate of only 1.1% a year in Pakistan, resulting in almost three quarters of GDP growth attributed to increases in labor and the capital stock.