Towards an Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

Integrated assessment is an analysis of a topic that integrates multiple lines of research. Integrated assessments are thus inherently interdisciplinary. They are generally oriented toward practical problems, often in the context of public policy, and frequently concern topics in science and technology. This paper presents a concept for and some initial work towards an integrated assessment of global catastrophic risk (GCR). Generally speaking, GCR is the risk of significant harm to global human civilization. More precise definitions are provided below. Some GCRs include nuclear war, climate change, and pandemic disease outbreaks. Integrated assessment of GCR puts all these risks into one study in order to address overarching questions about the risk and the opportunities to reduce it. The specific concept for integrated assessment presented here has been developed over several years by the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI). GCRI is an independent, nonprofit think tank founded in 2011 by Seth Baum and Tony Barrett (i.e., the authors). The integrated assessment structures much of GCRI's thinking and activity, and likewise offers a framework for general study and work on the GCR topic