TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms

In this paper we compare welfare effects and the extent of sectoral adjustments under the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) accords using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model from the perspective of Japan. The ambitious goals of both organizations, as well as overlapping membership, make comparisons of different scenarios particularly intriguing. Another objective of this paper is to examine the effects of Japan's agricultural policy reforms on its agricultural output. If agricultural reforms, such as phasing out gentan and consolidation of agricultural land, lead to an improvement in productivity of agricultural sectors, then the extent of output contraction of agricultural and processed food sectors in Japan would be reduced significantly except for dairy products. This suggests the importance of carrying out agricultural reforms in Japan for region-wide trade accords.