Trade and Income Growth in Vietnam: Estimates from a New Social Accounting Matrix

Economic reforms and greater outward orientation are giving rise to extensive structural change in the Vietnamese economy. Because of the leverage that global markets can exert on an emerging economy, such adjustments will be particularly significant in the composition of domestic supply and demand. As domestic protection levels are reduced and external market access increases, trade growth and shifting trade patterns will have pervasive effects on income distribution in Vietnam. In this paper, we use a newly estimated Vietnam social accounting matrix to elucidate the links between trade and income in the country. With matrix decomposition methods, we show how the Vietnamese economy propagates the direct effects of external demand across the spectrum of domestic activities, factors, and households. This detailed analysis provides a blueprint for policies to improve economic participation of activities and households with relatively weak linkages to the rest of the economy.